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| + | == www.amassdenver.com Swarm Savvy Science News 4 == | ||
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| + | welcomed the French Revolution and used mathematical probabilities to argue for the virtues of shared decision making. Known today as Condorcet’s jury theorem, his work describes conditions in which members of a group voting by majority rule are more likely to render a correct choice between two alternatives than is any individual in the group. One of the critical conditions for a happy outcome,<a href=" " target="_blank">< a>, the Marquis contended, was that each group member vote independently rather than copy another (possibly mistaken) juror.< p><p>Human groups deciding as a whole have scored spooky triumphs. “Nearly everybody is miles out, but when you take the average of these guesses,<a href=" " target="_blank">cheap jordans free shipping< a>, they’re usually very, very accurate,<a href=" " target="_blank">air jordans for cheap< a>,” says Ashley Ward, a fish behaviorist at the University of Sydney in Australia, whose work is cited in the special <em>Transactions< em> issue. The idea goes by the name “many wrongs,” as in many wrongs make a right.< p><p>A classic example appeared in <em>Nature< em> in 1907. Two reports looked at 787 contestants competing to guess the weight of a particular ox after butchering. Collectively, guessers came within 10 pounds (looking at the median of guesses) or just a pound short (looking at the mean) of the correct weight of 1,198 pounds.< p><p>Examples appear in abundance in business writer James Surowiecki’s best-seller <em>The Wisdom of Crowds < em>(2004). What enthusiasts of crowd wisdom (though not Surowiecki) tend to overlook is that the accuracy is in the arrangements. Those perfect<ul> | ||
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